Columbus of our time
This post is about Elon Musk. Like many space enthusiasts, I have waited for ITS reveal with great expectation. Mission to Mars. Mars One. Mars Colonization. Occupy Mars. Mars. The Martian. Mars is everywhere these days.
And of all these Mars related public stunts, we see Elon Musk as the only one with serious chance to pull this off in our lifetime. Spaces agencies have long procurement cycles and exhibit issues with long term political stability to keep funding at appropriate level. Space exploration and colonization is simply not the most important thing for majority of people in any country. And the ITS has been ... well ... beautiful.
Musk seems to see all other aspects of space economy simply as demand drivers that would help him to develop and operate Mars oriented transport system. LEO, GTO, GEO, SSO, LLO, L1, L2, lunar surface, NEA, Phobos, Deimos are just steps on the way, not the target. His presentation did not even mentioned them. Instead, it moves targets even further. To Ceres. Moons of Jupiter. Rings of Saturn. ITS is being designed to reach Mars and come back. Directly. Without any infrastructure in between (well except refueling stations in LEO and Mars surface).
Christoper Columbus believed that the Earth is much smaller that it really was. He applied for public funding (well, actually for Kings funding, but it can be viewed as similar). He really wanted to reduce transportation costs with India. And he believed that the best way to do it is to make shortcut by sailing west in contrast to other seamen, who kept going around Africa to get there. Going too far into void of sea is too risky. Because sea is hard.
We know the story. He managed to persuade the Queen Isabella to ignore expert's advice and fund a mission to search for west-ward way to India. Columbus never got there. Instead, he lost two out of three ships reaching Caribbean islands. Due to his ignorance and power of persuasion he made a great discovery. The experts were right. He was wrong. And yet, there is no "Experts Day" celebrated in USA.
Why is Elon Musk similar to Columbus? He puts a mark of far away target. Experts say: you are wrong. This is too risky. That is too far away. Too many engines. The trip lasts too long. Radiation. No backup. Power on Mars. Food on Mars. The ship is too big. Space is hard. Like he does not know it. Which space company had five failures in the last ten years and survived and thrived? And his power of persuasion seems to match the iconic Steve Jobs. SpaceX alone gets over 5% of NASA budget. And that is likely to increase. 28 contracted missions to ISS. And that is likely to increase. His vision already started to shape NASA policies. SLS seems like a slow moving dinosaur compared to Falcon Heavy - order of magnitude cheaper. Orion never-ending development seems in danger from slick moving Dragon-2. Designed to be able to land on Mars. And ITS dwarfs SLS/Orion in every aspect.
Red Dragons and ITS and reusable rockets might never reach Mars. Or at least not in significant numbers to really establish colony on Mars. But on the way there, SpaceX will rediscover a new continent - cislunar space.
And of all these Mars related public stunts, we see Elon Musk as the only one with serious chance to pull this off in our lifetime. Spaces agencies have long procurement cycles and exhibit issues with long term political stability to keep funding at appropriate level. Space exploration and colonization is simply not the most important thing for majority of people in any country. And the ITS has been ... well ... beautiful.
Musk seems to see all other aspects of space economy simply as demand drivers that would help him to develop and operate Mars oriented transport system. LEO, GTO, GEO, SSO, LLO, L1, L2, lunar surface, NEA, Phobos, Deimos are just steps on the way, not the target. His presentation did not even mentioned them. Instead, it moves targets even further. To Ceres. Moons of Jupiter. Rings of Saturn. ITS is being designed to reach Mars and come back. Directly. Without any infrastructure in between (well except refueling stations in LEO and Mars surface).
Christoper Columbus believed that the Earth is much smaller that it really was. He applied for public funding (well, actually for Kings funding, but it can be viewed as similar). He really wanted to reduce transportation costs with India. And he believed that the best way to do it is to make shortcut by sailing west in contrast to other seamen, who kept going around Africa to get there. Going too far into void of sea is too risky. Because sea is hard.
We know the story. He managed to persuade the Queen Isabella to ignore expert's advice and fund a mission to search for west-ward way to India. Columbus never got there. Instead, he lost two out of three ships reaching Caribbean islands. Due to his ignorance and power of persuasion he made a great discovery. The experts were right. He was wrong. And yet, there is no "Experts Day" celebrated in USA.
Why is Elon Musk similar to Columbus? He puts a mark of far away target. Experts say: you are wrong. This is too risky. That is too far away. Too many engines. The trip lasts too long. Radiation. No backup. Power on Mars. Food on Mars. The ship is too big. Space is hard. Like he does not know it. Which space company had five failures in the last ten years and survived and thrived? And his power of persuasion seems to match the iconic Steve Jobs. SpaceX alone gets over 5% of NASA budget. And that is likely to increase. 28 contracted missions to ISS. And that is likely to increase. His vision already started to shape NASA policies. SLS seems like a slow moving dinosaur compared to Falcon Heavy - order of magnitude cheaper. Orion never-ending development seems in danger from slick moving Dragon-2. Designed to be able to land on Mars. And ITS dwarfs SLS/Orion in every aspect.
Red Dragons and ITS and reusable rockets might never reach Mars. Or at least not in significant numbers to really establish colony on Mars. But on the way there, SpaceX will rediscover a new continent - cislunar space.
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