Circumlunar space tourism - updated numbers

New performance numbers from SpaceX regarding Falcon 9 and Heavy performance have made a big surprise. Suddenly even the basic vehicle became the (al)most capable operational rocket, while heavy variant will be the most capable rocket nearing the monster SLS.

Previously I wrote a post regarding near term capability of Falcon Heavy/Dragon V2 stack to perform Apollo 13 style "around the moon" missions which should be available from 2018 onward. My cost estimate was around 200 million for such a mission using 135 million for Falcon Heavy and up to 70 million for Dragon V2, both as expendable vehicles. But new performance numbers from SpaceX quote that Falcon Heavy price for GTO missions up to 8mT is 90 million USD. That presumes landing and reuse of three cores (probably with RTLS - Return To Launch Site), since it takes nearly 60% penalty compared to fully expendable performance.

Unknown figures here are related to Dragon 2 mass budget. Dragon 1 has dry mass of 4.2mT. Dragon 2 dry mass has been estimated at 6.4mT, and wet mass around 8.8mT. Most of additional wet mass is propellant (around 2mT) with Isp of 240. So onboard propellant alone should give over 500m/s dV capability to Dragon 2. DeltaV needed from GTO to TLI is roughly 700m/s.

So a Falcon Heavy could launch fully fueled Dragon to near-GTO for 90 million USD. Additional performance (where central core lands on a drone ship instead near the launch site) probably should not increase that cost significantly (lets say to 100 million). Stock Dragon 2 should be completely reusable after propulsive landing (with the exception of its trunk). Total cost per mission would be much lower than 70 million USD, so 30 million is realistic price, and 20 million is achievable.

Taking it all together, a circumlunar mission price could be targeted in the range of 110-130 million USD. Taking one professional crew member and 6 tourists gives an average price of 20 million USD per ticket, using the same hardware that will be operational and tested until 2018. That includes reusable boosters/stages, landing stages near launch site AND on a drone ship, and landing Dragon. What is missing? Testing Dragon propulsive landing (not mandatory, but probably needed for Dragon reuse) and heat shield test from lunar return velocity.

The greatest benefit for SpaceX would be new revenue stream from their existing hardware. ISS based space tourism requires complex logistical and political support which might prove more complex than technology itself. This type of space tourism would fill in many of shortcomings missing so far: several launch opportunities per year. Hardware fully built and tested. Hardware available on short notice (since everything except second stage and Dragon trunk would be reused). No dedicated investment needed upfront. Short training and flight duration (two to four weeks). Half the price than tourist flights so far (20 million vs 40 million or even more today for Soyuz/ISS tickets). Unique moments (low attitude fly-by on the lunar far side, earth rising, one or more aerobraking events). Possibility to have completely private mission (family trip, honeymoon around the moon). There are additional risks (radiation exposure, high-energy atmospheric reentry) compared to LEO mission but they exist for any type of BEO mission.

Consider the length that SpaceX went to win over possibility of launching US military assets for less than 10 flights per year. Circumlunar flights might be far easier market to address. They don't need to wait for other companies (Bigelow Aerospace) or governments (ISS participants). The main issue is discovering true demand curve (how many tickets could be sold at the given price point). But since all parts of the system would be developed and available up-front, there is no or minimal financial risk if the demand will not be adequate to fully book the mission. Space adventures reported that they have sold a single ticket for circumlunar flight to undisclosed customer for 150 million USD on modified Soyuz vehicle. So this single customer could finance one Dragon/FH mission alone and bring five friends along for a ride of the lifetime.

Before allowing/announcing this type of mission, SpaceX might wait to build up confidence on their hardware and schedule capabilities. Main reason would be capability to plan and execute such a mission in really short time frame after 2018. Once all pieces fly regularly, such mission could be planned and executed in less than six months. For space tourism, reliability and schedule adherence might be more important than for most satellite launches. If demand for circumlunar missions would justify more than three missions per year, it would also prove potential investors, that commercial space station with extended stay and volume could have similar demand from space tourists alone and thus truly launch the era of space tourism.