What is wrong with SpaceVR?

SpaceVR is a Silicon Valley startup that would like to provide live virtual reality experience of being in the space environment. They are the first space company that focuses on low cost entertainment only as a primary way to attract customers.

Their promotional video touched many things I would like to experience.  By limiting cost expenditure (essentially custom build cubesat), their mission is to provide a breath taking experience right from our homes. No need to endless aerospace education, carrier building, chasing right opportunities, and pure luck - their promise is that anybody can be an astronaut, even for one hour, without leaving their home. That is compelling story. And indeed, they have secured seed funding amounting to 1.25 million USD.

First big problem is technical: how to transfer multiple HD streams to Earth from cubesat. We are talking about at least six HD streams (and possibly more) from a single cubesat. That is 120Mbps downlink. Whole ISS, with dedicated transponders on several geosats has 300Mbps downlink bandwidth. Leasing three transponders on three different GEO satellites is roughly six million USD per year alone. Or it could be downloaded in bursts: there are products that enable 100Mbps speed enabling downloading up to 13GB of data per pass. But that loses real time feed and enables downlink of just one HD camera feed per pass.

But lets consider some numbers from financial perspective. Lets assume that one million is enough money to build 3U cubesat, launch it to space, and operate it for one year before it is reenters the atmosphere. And lets assume that all telecommunication needs have been covered by that cost. One year equals 8.760 hours, so the should be able to earn at least 114 USD for every hour while the satellite is operational in orbit. The good thing is that that video (VR) feed can be shared among many consumers concurrently. At the cost of 114USD per hour, they might not get too many concurrent viewers. So probably they would need to reduce it over and over. Early adopters can pre-order it now for 35USD for the whole year. Good sales pitch probably could find some venues that would want to provide enhanced experience with dedicated VR equipment etc.

But here is a big BUT. What if their mission is quite successful during the 1st week? They have sustained thousand users concurrently watching their content. They proclaim a success. Champagne flows. They attract attention. TV shows. TED talk. What ever. There are people from many countries watching it. For most, that is their best chance to go to space and have astronaut experience. But it is kind of expensive for them. So one person, in the whole world, has an idea. You know, ISS feed is free and in HD resolution. And sky from space is more or less the same. And...all this sat does, is going around in circles around the Earth. It is 90 minutes per pass. So it would be possible to just overlay that ISS feed into 3D model and produce a VR experience very similar to the right thing. And it can repeat it over and over. Without any satellite or space to earth telecommunication challenges. Suddenly our success story losses its appeal. Because for a fraction of cost (or even for free), people from around the world would have comparable experience. It would not be completely real (as it would patch/extrapolate existing video feeds into 3D model), but does it matter?

So SpaceVR pitch has a serious flaw: it relies on repetitive, mostly unchanged broadcasting content. You cannot DO anything except watch the same scene over and over again. In the nutshell, it would become BORING. To some people immediately, to some after few minutes or hours. But it would be BORING for 99.9 (add as many nines as you wish) percentage of the audience. And  BORING is not good for entertainment company.

Thus to make SpaceVR really compelling, they need unique content and provide some action in the mix. Ideally, user feedback would control this action. Without it, they are doomed in the long run. For example, having their cubesat equipped with small propulsion units. And then perform a little bit of flying around ISS. Ideally during EVA in progress. Or depart from Cygnus just before the reentry, recording it as it disintegrates. Another really cool feature would be visiting old telecommunication satellites in near-GEO graveyard orbits. Just looping in LEO will not be enough.